We can warn residents about how strong Hurricane Irene is expected to be, where it will make landfall and what the impacts will be, but sometimes it’s easier for people to relate to past hurricanes to get a better idea of what to expect.
There are a few hurricanes of the past, such as Bob, Fran, Hugo and Floyd, that are comparable to what we expect of Irene. However, one of the most similar, in terms of track, is Hurricane Bertha in 1996.
Bertha first formed over the central Atlantic in early July 1996 and became a Category 1 hurricane upon approaching the Leeward Islands. The hurricane caused millions of dollars in damage as it moved through the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and north of Puerto Rico.
Thereafter, Bertha continued on a northwesterly track, passing east of the Bahamas and ultimately making landfall as a strong Category 2 hurricane in North Carolina between Wrightsville and Topsail Beach.
Winds were estimated around 100 mph at landfall. The storm surge was 5 to 6 feet.
The storm continued tracking north-northeastward along the East coast of the U.S., unleashing 45- to 60-mph winds and flooding rain along the way from northern North Carolina to New England.
The National Hurricane Center reports that 12 deaths were attributed to Bertha. The storm caused an estimated 5 million in insured property damage, mostly along the North Carolina coast, according to the American Insurance Association. Total damage has been estimated at 0 million.
Federal disaster areas were declared in the U.S. Virgin Islands and North Carolina. Approximately 750,000 people were evacuated from the Carolinas, according to FEMA.
Similarities and Differences Between Bertha and Irene
While Bertha formed farther out over the central Atlantic than Irene, both storms took a track through the Leeward Islands and skirted the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at hurricane strength.
Irene is currently tracking farther west than Bertha, plowing right through the Bahamas. The center of Bertha, on the other hand, stayed just east of the Bahamas.
Irene is forecast to be a stronger storm than Bertha. Bertha reached Category 3 hurricane strength for only a brief period of time to the east of the southern Bahamas.
Irene is forecast to strengthen as it continues blasting through the Bahamas, attaining Category 4 strength and remaining a major hurricane as it barrels toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Irene’s expected landfall in the Outer Banks would be farther east than Bertha’s. Since it could be a stronger storm than Bertha, Irene’s impacts may be more severe.
North of North Carolina, Irene is predicted to continue tracking farther east than Bertha did, moving right along or just offshore of the mid-Atlantic and potentially making a second landfall as a Category 1 hurricane over Long Island and third landfall over Connecticut.
Other Hurricanes of the Past that are Similar to Irene:
Hurricane Bob in 1991
Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in New England. It tracked very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a strong Category 2 hurricane, though the eye did not move onshore.
From there, Bob briefly strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 2 storm before making landfall twice in Rhode Island, first on Block and second in Newport. Bob also made another landfall as a strong tropical storm in Maine.
Creating an estimated .5 billion (1991 USD) in damage, Hurricane Bob was one of the costliest hurricanes in New England’s history, according to Wikipedia. The hurricane claimed an estimated 17 lives.
Overall, Irene’s track is expected to be farther west than Bob’s along the East Coast of the U.S. While Bob stayed offshore of the Carolinas, Irene is predicted to make landfall in the Outer Banks.
Irene’s track is also expected to be farther west than Bob’s farther north with a predicted landfall over Long Island and again over Connecticut.
As far as intensity goes, Irene is a stronger hurricane than Bob, already attaining Category 3 strength over the Bahamas. Irene is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane today.
While Irene will weaken after passing by North Carolina and as it approaches New England, it is still expected to hit as a strong Category 1 or even a Category 2 hurricane.
Away from the U.S., Irene and Bob are very much different hurricanes. Irene first formed over the central Atlantic, east of the Leeward Islands, while Bob formed much closer to home, east of the northern Bahamas.
Irene has caused damage and flooding across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos and is about to have a major impact on the Bahamas. Bob’s impacts were overwhelmingly limited to the United States.
Fran barreled onshore with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph in the vicinity of Cape Fear, N.C., a location that could lie in the direct path of Hurricane Irene this weekend.
Though Irene is similar to Fran in terms of strength and a landfall over North Carolina, the rest of Fran’s track across the Atlantic Basin was quite different from Irene. Fran formed just off the coast of Africa and tracked well north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas, unlike Irene.
Fran also took a much different path inland over the U.S., tracking northwestward through the Virginias and Ohio. Irene is expected to move along or parallel to the coast of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Hurricane Floyd took a path across the Atlantic that battered the northern Bahamas and brought the storm inland over Cape Fear, N.C., as a Category 2 storm.
At its strongest, Floyd was a Category 4 hurricane as it passed north of the southern Bahamas and plowed into several islands of the northern Bahamas.
Floyd caused an estimated .5 billion in damage and was blamed for 57 fatalities.
Hurricane Hugo in 1989
Hugo is another disastrous hurricane that took a path through the Leeward Islands, grazed Puerto Rico and ultimately made landfall in the Carolinas.
The hurricane struck Isle of Palms, S.C., as a powerful Category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph. Hugo claimed 27 lives in South Carolina, left nearly 100,000 people homeless and caused billion in damage.
Hugo’s landfall point was well south of where Irene is expected to blast onshore. Hugo also tracked well inland over the U.S., whereas Irene is predicted to stay closer to the coast of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast after landfall.

Hurricane Prevention
Posted by: Public Affairs
Atlanta, GA, August 25, 2011 — The Region IV Region Response Coordination Center in Atlanta, Ga. has been fully activated to prepare for for the threat of Hurricane Irene impacting North and South Carolina. FEMA regional offices along the East Coast, in Philadelphia, Penn., Boston, Mass. and New York, N.Y. are also working closely with potentially affected states.
Through our regional offices in Boston, Mass., Philadelphia, Penn., New York, N.Y., Atlanta, Ga., and our Caribbean Area Office in Puerto Rico, have been in close contact and coordination with the territories that have been affected, and states that may be impacted.
On Monday, President Obama declared an emergency for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, making available federal resources to support response efforts. In advance of Irene moving through the territories, we deployed teams to both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to coordinate directly with local officials on the ground.
And at the direction of President Obama and DHS Secretary Napolitano, we continue to work with our federal, state, territorial, tribal, and local partners, as well as voluntary organizations, the private sector, and others to aggressively prepare for Hurricane Irene.
The following timeline provides an overview of these and other federal activities, to date, to support these territories, states, families and communities. For the latest updates on our activities, visit the Severe Tropical Weather category on our blog.
Thursday, August 25
- Department of Homeland Secretary Napolitano and FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate brief the President on ongoing activities in response to Hurricane Irene, including FEMA’s support for territorial response activities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, as well as FEMA’s coordination of preparation efforts with the governors of potentially impacted states.
- In advance preparation for the storm, FEMA National Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs) are on the ground in North Carolina and Virginia and arriving in South Carolina, today in anticipation of further deployment to potential impact areas along the east coast of the U.S. In addition, Regional IMATs are also being deployed to Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont, to coordinate with state, tribal and local officials to identify needs and shortfalls impacting potential disaster response and recovery.
- In addition to Incident Support Bases (ISBs) operating in Fort Bragg, NC and Fort Gordon in Augusta, GA to support federal operations to respond to Hurricane Irene, ISBs are being set up in Westover Air Reserve Base in Massachusetts and Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst in New Jersey, to support states within the regions. The Incident Support Base allows FEMA and federal partners to proactively stage commodities closer to areas potentially affected by severe weather, allowing us to quickly move needed supplies throughout nearby affected states, should they be needed and requested.
- FEMA Liaisons are currently located in North Carolina, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York. Liaisons are also deploying New Jersey, Virginia and Maryland.
- FEMA Deputy Administrator Serino and National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read hold a conference call with congressional stakeholders to discuss response operations, the latest storm developments and preparations.
- Secretary Napolitano and Administrator Fugate later convened a call with state, local and tribal emergency management officials, homeland security advisors, elected officials and tribal leaders in all states potentially affected by Hurricane Irene as the storm travels up the East Coast-highlighting federal resources and coordinated federal, state, tribal and local resiliency efforts for Hurricane Irene.
- Two Mobile Emergency Response System (MERS), one in Raleigh, NC and one at Fort Jackson, SC are staged to support emergency response communications needs.
- A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 249th Engineering Battalion (Prime Power) team is staged at the Fort Bragg, NC Incident Support Base.
- U.S. Coast Guard Water Science Center deploys crews to North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland to deploy storm surge sensors to coastal areas. Additional sensors are being shipped to Florida, Connecticut and New York.
- U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities along the east coast have begun preparatory actions in advance of potential landfall of Hurricane Irene.
- U.S. Department of the Interior units affected by the storm, primarily national parks and fish and wildlife refuges along the coast, are taking all appropriate actions and informing the public via local announcements as actions are taken. Among the preparations, the National Park Service and Fish and Wildlife Service are organizing and deploying Incident Management Teams and Law Enforcement Teams.
- The American Red Cross begins opening shelters in North Carolina as local evacuation orders begin to go into effect. Additional shelters in North Carolina and other states are being prepared along the east coast. More information is available about open Red Cross shelters at redcross.org.
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center is monitoring Hurricane Irene, issuing watches and warnings to affected areas as required, and flying jet surveillance missions to provide updated forecasts.
- The Federal Communications Center (FCC) has deployed two Roll Call Spectrum Scanning teams to the FEMA regional offices in Atlanta and Boston. These teams conduct post scans after landfall to determine which critical communications systems might have been impacted.
- U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) is prepared to provide public health and medical support to states along the east coast in response to Hurricane Irene. The HHS is also coordinating with public health and emergency management agencies in U.S. territories and states along the projected hurricane path to make information available on how people can protect their health as they prepare for and respond to hurricanes and other natural disasters.
- The U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has activated a Defense Coordinating Officer to the FEMA Regional Response Coordination Center in Atlanta in preparation for support to civil authorities as Hurricane Irene approaches the east coast of the United States.
See yesterday’s blog post for a recap of earlier federal activities.
FEMA Blog