According to iWeather Online’s Peter O’Donnell: “Latest indications show that Maria may make landfall around Placentia Bay in southeast Newfoundland around 1930 GMT (which would be 5 p.m. local time) and then move north towards Bonavista before being absorbed by a strong low near the Labrador coast.”
Maria is the thirteenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season and first emerged as a vigorous tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic on September 5. The system quickly organized and was designated Tropical Depression Fourteen on September 6, before strengthening into a tropical storm the next day.
The top job at the National Hurricane Center is wide open.
Ken Kaye’s Storm Center – South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
Miami (CNN) — Rina strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane off the coast of Central America on Monday, as officials in Nicaragua searched for more than two dozen missing storm evacuees.
A navy boat ferrying people between the Miskito Cays and Puerto Cabezas, on the eastern coast, was reported missing on Sunday, according to Vice Adm. Roger Gonzalez of the Nicaraguan navy. Twenty-seven people were on board, he said.
Forecasters warn that the storm will strengthen further before making landfall later this week.
Readings from a reconnaissance aircraft showed the storm had 75 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. As of 5 p.m. ET, Rina was centered about 195 miles southwest of Grand Cayman island and 355 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico.
The storm was moving west-northwest at 3 mph, the forecast center said, and could strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane in the next 48 hours.
Earlier Monday, forecasters said Rina’s projected path had shifted course, menacing Mexico with the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm is expected to dump between 2-4 inches of rain over the Cayman Islands.
Rina could make landfall this week in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula — home to Cancun and many of Mexico’s top tourist spots.
“It is too early to speculate what, if any effects Rina will have on the U.S., but after the storm makes landfall in the Yucatan, the combination of land interaction and high shear that is forecast into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken Rina as it begins to turn towards the northeast towards Cuba, or perhaps South Florida or the Bahamas,” said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen.
Flood-soaked Central America also braced for more rain Monday as Rina lumbered toward land.
In Nicaragua and Honduras, where flooding and mudslides have affected thousands and killed dozens of people, authorities issued alerts warning residents that more precipitation could be on the way.
October marks the end of the rainy season in the region and is when the area is most susceptible to flooding because the ground is already saturated, CNN International weather anchor Mari Ramos said.
Heavy rains have hit Honduras for several weeks, killing at least 29 people, according to government statistics.
In Guatemala, 39 people have been killed and thousands remain at risk, the state-run AGN news agency reported.
Civil protection officials in El Salvador reported 34 rain-related deaths. And Nicaragua has reported at least 12 deaths.
(CNN) — Rina was on the verge of becoming a Category 3 hurricane as it careened near Honduras and Belize on Wednesday before heading toward Cancun.
The storm was packing near 110 mph winds early Wednesday morning and moving at 5 mph, according to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. That is 1 mph away from a Category 3 hurricane.
Forecast models show Rina strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane before approaching the Yucatan. The projected path shows Rina back at Category 2 intensity when it takes aim at Cancun on Thursday.
Residents and worried travelers in Cancun stocked up on supplies Tuesday to prepare for the storm to hit the popular Mexican resort city.
Carla Bautista bought bread, water and canned tuna.
“It’s my first hurricane. This is new. … I’m a little afraid, because I don’t know what to expect,” said Bautista, 28, who moved to Cancun two months ago from Mexico City.
Mexican officials issued a hurricane warning for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun as the Category 2 storm strengthened. Similarly, U.S. officials issued a travel alert, advising U.S. citizens in the area to prepare themselves for the possibility of a hurricane.
Some tourists decided not to take any chances.
“We wanted to get out of there. … We were on vacation and just didn’t want to be stressed,” said Kathy Davis, 57, an American with a timeshare in Cancun.
She said she and her husband celebrated their 25th wedding anniversary at the airport while waiting to catch a flight.
In Cancun’s hotel area, crews were securing boats and clearing palm fronds and debris.
Kelly McLaughlin moved her 6-year-old son’s toys inside and trimmed tree branches around her home.
“I’m just checking everything to make sure there’s nothing loose,” said McLaughlin, a Canadian who’s lived in Cancun for eight years.
McLaughlin, 40, said preparing for storms has become routine since Hurricane Wilma devastated the area in 2005.
“My friends that are fairly new to Cancun are a lot more nervous and starting to get a little stressed,” she said. “I’m just trying to keep everyone calm.”
Lines at supermarkets and gas stations were long, residents said.
As of 5 a.m. ET Wednesday, the center of Rina was about 215 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. It was moving west at 3 mph, but was expected to gradually turn northwest and speed up over the next two days, forecasters said.
A tourist walks past palm trees swaying in winds caused by the proximity of Hurricane Rina hurricane off the coast of Quintana Roo in Cancun on Tuesday. Victor Ruiz Garcia/Reuters
Now a full fledged hurricane, Kenneth is located in the north Pacific Ocean heading West, further out in the Pacific. It has evolved into a Catagory 4 hurricane. At this point it is not threatening any land and it is not expected to in the near future. Its present location is the least threatening to any land mass at this time. It is presently located at latitude +12.6, longitude -114.9. At the present time, this is the only tropical storm on the globe.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is just about complete.
hurricane season produced 18 named storms, as of mid-November, well
above the average number of 10 named storms. The most glaring statistic
– and perhaps most notable – is the fact that out of those 18 named
storms only 6 went on to become hurricanes – that is close to average
and well below the number of hurricanes from last year (12).
Although damage was inflicted upon various coastal communities
including the Outer Banks, it’s what happened AFTER landfall that proved
to be the most destructive and costly.
during the Atlantic hurricane off-season. He’ll continue to provide
updates on tropical activity across the globe and prepare you for next
season.
Hurricane Kate now holds the record for striking the U.S. coast later than any other hurricane during storm season, the National Hurricane Center announced this week. Kate hit Florida’s Panhandle on Nov. 21, 1985 as a Category 2.
Ken Kaye’s Storm Center – South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
What’s the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning? What separates a tropical depression from a tropical storm? During a hurricane season, understanding the ins and out of basic weather jargon could help you stay safe.
El Nino
The non-cyclical warming of East Pacific Ocean temperatures off the western coast of South America (extending into the central Pacific) that can result in significant changes in weather patterns in the United States and globally. Years with a strong El Nino tend to be linked to a below-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin.
Extratropical
A term used in advisories and tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its “tropical” characteristics. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm strength.
Eye
The center of a hurricane (and occasionally a strong tropical storm), characterized by a roughly circular area of light winds, no rain, and sometimes cloud-free skies. An eye will usually develop when the maximum sustained wind speeds exceed about 75 mph. The eye can range in size from as small as
4 miles up to 60 miles or more, but the average size is about
20 miles.
Eyewall
An organized band of deep showers and, at times, thunderstorms surrounding the eye, or center, of a tropical cyclone. Intense rainfall and typically the strongest winds are found within the eyewall.
Hurricane
The name for a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, eastern and central North Pacific Ocean. Hurricanes are known as “typhoons” in the western Pacific and “tropical cyclones” in the remainder of the world.
Hurricane Season
The time of year when tropical cyclone formation is most likely. In the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30. The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Hurricanes can — and do — form before and after the “official hurricane season.” Typhoons occur in every month of the year — more frequently than in the Atlantic basin — but are most common in summer and fall.
Hurricane Warning
Hurricane conditions are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.
Hurricane Watch
Hurricane conditions are possible in a specified coastal area within 36 hours.
Landfall
The place that the center of circulation — the center of the eye, if there is one — crosses land. It’s important to note that impacts like rain, wind and surge can precede landfall and can extend far away from the precise point of landfall.
Rain Band
An elongated area of showers and/or thunderstorms often in the form of spiral bands extending away from the core of a tropical cyclone. The bands can span less than 50 miles to hundreds of miles and often persist for more than 12 hours. Rain band widths are usually less than 75 miles wide and, at times, can be less than 20 miles wide. Many individual cloud elements comprise a rain band; sometimes hundreds of individual clouds are associated with a single very long rain band. These individual raining clouds can sequentially move over roughly the same area resulting in severe flooding. Interestingly, some tropical cyclones have well-defined or even extreme rain bands while others appear to have very few rain bands associated with them.
Saffir-Simpson Scale
Developed in the early 1970s by Herbert Saffir, a consulting engineer, and Robert Simpson, then Director of the National Hurricane Center, it is a measure of hurricane intensity on a scale of 1 to 5. The scale categorizes potential wind damage.
Wind Shear
A change in wind speed and/or wind direction vertically or horizontally. Directional (speed) shear is a change in wind direction (wind speed).
Surge
The increase in sea water height (above the level that would normally occur if there was no storm/hurricane) due to onshore winds. Although the most dramatic surges are associated with hurricanes, weaker low pressure systems can cause surge. Surge is estimated by subtracting the normal astronomic tide from the observed tide.
Tropical Cyclone
A warm-core low pressure system which develops over tropical, and sometimes subtropical, waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending on its sustained surface winds, the system is classified as a tropical disturbance, a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a hurricane or typhoon.
Tropical Depression
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface winds are 38 mph or less. It may form slowly from a tropical disturbance oar from a tropical wave.
Tropical Disturbance
An area of organized convection, originating in the tropics and occasionally the subtropics, that maintains its identity for 24 hours or more. It is often the first developmental stage of any subsequent tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane.
Tropical Storm
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface winds are 39 mph to 73 mph. Upon gaining tropical storm intensity, the system is given a name to identify and track it.
Tropical Storm Warning
Tropical storm conditions are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch
Tropical storm conditions are possible in a specified coastal area generally within 36 hours.
Tropical Wave
A name for an easterly wave or other generally westward moving disturbance; it has an area of relatively low pressure most typically embedded in the trade wind easterlies. Generally, it is associated with cloudiness, showers, and windy weather. It can be a precursor to tropical cyclone development.
Typhoon
The name for a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater in the western North Pacific Ocean. This same
tropical “cyclone” is known as a “hurricane” in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean, and as a “cyclone” in the Indian Ocean.
Rina is now a category 2 hurricane after rapid strengthening occurred during the evening of October 24. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Rina is now located around 210…
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